Thinking with Probability in Action

We use words as well as numbers to describe different probabilities. E.g. Likely is a high chance, perhaps 80%

Klawans did not conclude that a one in a million mutation had taken place, but rather, assessing the odds of adultery much greater than one in a million, he surmises that one of the partners had a sexual relationship outside the marriage with a person who carried the disease.


Words are used to categorize the world. A diagrammatic image of the relations between words.

Mentalese is a term for the collection of ideas which attempt to describe our thoughts and internal monologues. What symbols do we use for thinking and what rules do they follow?. The symbols are so often words that sometimes it seems that all thought is words. The ready but naive assumption that all thoughts are…

Complexity in Environment

Simple person facing many simple challenges

People exhibit a vast behavioral repertoire. How do we explain this wide range of choices? Should we limit ourselves to differences between people? Normally, we think of people as being very complicated and each of us different from everybody else. Complex Personality Our typical presumption is that each person has a complex personality, which explains…